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This paper examines the role of Japan against that of China in the exchange rate regime in East Asia in light of growing interest in forming a currency union in the region. The analysis suggests that currency unions with China tend to generate higher average welfare gains for East Asian countries than currency unions with Japan or the United States. Overall, Japan does not appear to be a dominant player in forming a currency union in East Asia, and this trend is likely to continue if China's relative presence continues to rise in the regional trade.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Monetary policy --- Currency --- Monetary question --- Money, Primitive --- Specie --- Standard of value --- Exchange --- Value --- Banks and banking --- Coinage --- Currency question --- Gold --- Silver --- Silver question --- Wealth --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Trade: General --- Economic Integration --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Monetary unions --- Currencies --- Plurilateral trade --- Regional trade --- General equilibrium models --- Economic integration --- International trade --- Econometric analysis --- Econometric models --- Japan
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Since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, new interest has emerged in the formation of a common currency area in East Asia. This paper provides estimates of trade and welfare effects of East Asian currency unions, using a micro-founded gravity model. Counter-factual experiments to assess the effects of various hypothetical currency arrangements for East Asia suggest that an East Asian currency union will double bilateral trade in the region, but the resulting welfare effects will be moderate. However, if Japan, a major trade partner for East Asia, is included in the union, welfare effects increase substantially. The evidence thus suggests that certain regional currency arrangements in East Asia will stimulate regional trade rigorously and can generate economically significant welfare gains.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Trade: General --- Economic Integration --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary unions --- Currencies --- Plurilateral trade --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Trade barriers --- Economic integration --- Money --- International trade --- Commercial policy --- Japan
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The large influx of migrants to Nordic countries in recent years is challenging the adoptability of Nordic labor market institutions while also adding to potential growth. This paper examines the trends, economic drivers, and labor market implications of migration to Nordic countries with a particular focus on economic migration as distinct from the recent large flows of asylum seekers. Our analysis finds that migration inflows to the Nordics are influenced by both cyclical and structural factors. Although migration helpfully dampens overheating pressures during periods of strong demand, and over the longer term will cushion the decline in labor supply from population aging, in the near-term unemployment can rise, especially among the young and lower-skilled. The analysis highlights the need to adapt Nordic labor market institutions in a manner that better facilitates the integration of migrants into employment. In particular, greater wage flexibility at the firm level and continued strong active labor market measures will help improve labor market outcomes among immigrants.
Labor --- Demography --- Emigration and Immigration --- Labor Economics Policies --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Economics of Minorities and Races --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- International Migration --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Demographic Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Population & demography --- Migration --- Labor markets --- Unemployment rate --- Population and demographics --- Emigration and immigration --- Labor market --- Population --- Sweden
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This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Trade: General --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Imports --- Financial crises --- International trade --- Reserve positions --- Central banks --- Foreign exchange reserves --- United States
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Structural reforms are expected to lift growth and employment, but their effects are surprisingly difficult to pin down empirically. One reason is their potential endogeneity to the economic environment in which they are conducted. For example, the impact of a reform implemented shortly before a cyclical upswing is difficult to distinguish from the recovery itself. Similarly, macroeconomic policies conducted along a structural reform could affect the estimated impact. Exploring various options, this paper develops robust estimates of the impact of labor and product market reforms by using local projection techniques while controlling for endogeneity of reforms and other biases. The results suggest that labor and product market reforms have a lagged but positive impact on employment creation, and the positive effect remains even after controlling for the endogeneity of the decision to reform. Supportive macroeconomic policies are found to increase the effect of labor and product market reforms, consistent with the view that some structural reforms are best initiated in conjunction with supportive fiscal or monetary policy.
Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Business cycles. --- Economic policy. --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Economics --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic policy --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General --- Labor Economics Policies --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Structural reforms --- Employment rate --- Labor market reforms --- Commodity markets --- Macrostructural analysis --- Financial markets --- Economic theory --- Manpower policy --- Commodity exchanges --- Germany
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This study assesses the experience of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) based on available empirical evidence over the last two decades. It pays particular attention to member countries' adjustment to economic shocks in recent years and the inter-country linkages, including the spillover effects of policies. The paper draws the main lessons from the CMA experience, identifies key policy challenges, and discusses the issues facing the member countries in their efforts to achieve sustained growth. Implications for further economic integration in a broader regional context are also noted.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Currencies --- Monetary unions --- International reserves --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Money --- Banks and banking --- Foreign exchange reserves --- South Africa
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Business cycles --- International Monetary Fund --- Foreign exchange reserves --- LDC / Developping Countries - Pays En Développement --- 333.111.42 --- 331.030 --- goudreserves en deviezenreserves. --- Conjunctuurschommelingen: algemeenheden. --- Working papers --- goudreserves en deviezenreserves --- Conjunctuurschommelingen: algemeenheden --- Foreign exchange reserves - Developing countries
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Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.
Foreign exchange reserves --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Currency reserves, Foreign --- Foreign currency reserves --- Foreign reserves (Foreign exchange reserves) --- International reserves (Foreign exchange reserves) --- Reserves, Foreign exchange --- Finance, Public --- Reserves (Accounting) --- E-books --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Banking --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Imports --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Consumption --- Conventional peg --- Reserve positions --- Central banks --- Reserves accumulation --- National accounts --- Economics --- Fiscal policy --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- United States
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The rapid uptake of mobile money in recent years has generated new data needs and growing interest in understanding its impact on broad money. This paper reviews mobile money trends using mobile money data from the Financial Access Survey (FAS) and examines the statistical treatment of mobile money under the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS) framework. MFS guidance is straightforward in most cases, as many jurisdictions have adopted regulations which ensure that mobile money is captured in the banking system and thus in the calculation of broad money. However, in cases where mobile network operators (MNOs) act as niche financial intermediaries outside the banking regulatory perimeter and are allowed to invest their customer funds in sovereign securities and other permitted assets, mobile money liabilities may remain outside the banking system as well as monetary statistics. In that case, information on mobile money liabilities need to be collected directly from MNOs to account for mobile money as part of broad money.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Statistics --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Accounting and Auditing: Government Policy and Regulation --- Regulation and Business Law: General --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Computer applications in industry & technology --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Mobile banking --- Technology --- Monetary base --- Money --- Monetary statistics --- Economic and financial statistics --- Financial statistics --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Banks and banking, Mobile --- Money supply --- Economic indicators --- Finance --- Kenya
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The rapid uptake of mobile money in recent years has generated new data needs and growing interest in understanding its impact on broad money. This paper reviews mobile money trends using mobile money data from the Financial Access Survey (FAS) and examines the statistical treatment of mobile money under the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS) framework. MFS guidance is straightforward in most cases, as many jurisdictions have adopted regulations which ensure that mobile money is captured in the banking system and thus in the calculation of broad money. However, in cases where mobile network operators (MNOs) act as niche financial intermediaries outside the banking regulatory perimeter and are allowed to invest their customer funds in sovereign securities and other permitted assets, mobile money liabilities may remain outside the banking system as well as monetary statistics. In that case, information on mobile money liabilities need to be collected directly from MNOs to account for mobile money as part of broad money.
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